Oil.

When I miss, I missed big on that one. If I would have read the charts a little better, ~-1 sigma area has been the place where OIH and USO rebound quite nicely to the upside. I even had the lines marked for it. I didn't trade oil today thankfully. I will post my AMR trade after I get off work.

R

Oil.

I like to look at things that affect transportation stocks. In the short term, I see oil as moving to the downside. As soon as it begins to find a bottom from it's recent declines, I'm probably going to jump right in for a swing trade. -1 sigma on the chart and slightly below have been good bottoms as I looked over the dailies for the past 2 years. I'll look for -1, -1.5 sigma to be a place a cross might happen. We shall see.

Edit: Oil up premarket. :)

R

QQQQ/SPY.

I am going to through some longer term charts to see what kind of ideas I can get for the opening week.

Here is a weekly chart on the Q's with both SPX / NDX McClellans

What I am seeing:

The CI is flattening out on the weekly timeframe. That doesn't necessarily represent anything just yet. A trend reversal is very possible. The market could continue to the upside and the indicator would continue moving upward. It is just a small point to look at.

The McClellan is signaling a movement to the downside as well.

I like to look at the long term view because it gives me a look at what could happen.

I am now going to take a look closer at the daily chart of the SPY.


The charts are not giving clear indication here.

What I think may or may not happen.

The evidence on the weekly charts shows that more downside movement could occur. However, the overbought oversold shows oversold, but not the kind oversold strength you could short (i mean as farther downside movement) or buy into.

From what I see on twitter, articles, etc the herd appears to have jumped back on the short side. I see quite a few people piling to the downside, and it may be time for another early push to the upside. There is no fundamental backing for this kind of move, but we will see when the market opens.

R

More intraday.

Well, I learned my lesson Friday. I got in and out of the market unscathed. I traded against my usual system and nearly got burned. I have been testing out this new set of indicators, and I didn't wait on the real cross. I bought early on AMR at 5.07. I was extremely busy, and I wanted to get a position that I felt didn't pose a large amount of risk. I saw a fresh cross to the upside, but it quickly turned against me. It ran down to about 4.91 then quickly popped up to 5.15.

The final position: I bought 5.07 x 10,000 shares , and I sold at 5.14. I think I learned more about this trade than I have from any other probably in the past month. A friend of mine says the second mouse always gets the cheese. I pulled the trigger a little early here, and I had to sit for a bit until it came back up.

I got headfaked, and I had to stomach the minimal downside movement. I have gone over the trade on paper and in my head. I have learned a great deal.

I will be posting some charts of some possible market movements.

R

Little AMR chart.

About this trade, I damn near bought the bottom. It wasn't terribly difficult seeing a bounce of S2 and a Qs rally / gap up early. I had a fresh cross on the CI indicator. Halfway through the move as VWAP was breached, I sold half the position to protect profits. I rode most of the second wave upwards. I don't have esignal at work so I am almost in the blind after 1045est as I leave for work. I use thinkorswim web platform to keep an eye on my trades at work, but I try to have most of the leg work done the night before or during amateur hour.

I am a fairly dull trader. I have a consistent strategy of buying and selling what I know. I really don't try to veer far outside my limited knowledge. I do this because I have paid small amounts (read hundreds) of tuition. The losses remind me that my knowledge makes me money regularly, but it is limited. I have a grasp on financials and transportation.

My father is a pilot for United Airlines, and I look to him to give me a feel of airline fundamentals. I have stopped trading UAUA for now because I don't want to make up to a merger. While that might shoot shares up, I don't want to be holding a company that is relatively weak. AMR is weak too, but I have a little more confidence in it as a major airline.

I profit off of small positions. I limit my risk, and I am in out usually in a couple hours. I rarely hold over night unless I am confident in my position. As the market gets a solid direction, I will open up my trades to higher shares, but I just don't trust the current market.

I am testing eSignal charting platform with Hamzei (hamzeianalytics.com) indicators. That is the chart you see above.



R

AMR.

I bought 3,000 position in AMR @ 5.77 as I saw a fresh cross on a new indicator I've been testing out.

I sold half the position at 5.90 in case the market began to run against me ( I don't have my trade setup at work). I kept the remainder up until 5.13 when I sold the rest. I think the stock continued up until 5.30.

I had bought a very small AMR position (800) in my speculation account last night below 5 dollars. I sold that position at 5.25.

I will put some charts up later on the inital trade and the signals/indicator I saw.

R

QQQQ.

Just taking a look at the Q's. I see a couple things going on here. S1 was breached very early on as the market moved quickly downward. VWAP appeared to be resistance throughout the day. VWAP also was a great bulltrap. It appeared to have caught quite a few people trying to push back to the upside. S2 was the primary level of support at around 33 dollars.

If S2 ($33.00) cannot hold tomrrow morning, I see 31.75 as probably the next test. If this downtrend is going to continue, I would like to see a violent greedy move to the upside (profit a little, set up some shorts) .

All in all, a fairly boring trading day.

We have seen a few days of serious downside movement. I am going to be extremely defensive with my trades.

R