T Trades

Oil.

2009-05-18T14:59:00.001-07:00

When I miss, I missed big on that one. If I would have read the charts a little better, ~-1 sigma area has been the place where OIH and USO rebound quite nicely to the upside. I even had the lines marked for it. I didn't trade oil today thankfully. I will post my AMR trade after I get off work.

R

Oil.

2009-05-17T20:08:00.000-07:00

I like to look at things that affect transportation stocks. In the short term, I see oil as moving to the downside. As soon as it begins to find a bottom from it's recent declines, I'm probably going to jump right in for a swing trade. -1 sigma on the chart and slightly below have been good bottoms as I looked over the dailies for the past 2 years. I'll look for -1, -1.5 sigma to be a place a cross might happen. We shall see.

Edit: Oil up premarket. :)

R

QQQQ/SPY.

2009-05-17T11:08:00.000-07:00

I am going to through some longer term charts to see what kind of ideas I can get for the opening week.

Here is a weekly chart on the Q's with both SPX / NDX McClellans

What I am seeing:

The CI is flattening out on the weekly timeframe. That doesn't necessarily represent anything just yet. A trend reversal is very possible. The market could continue to the upside and the indicator would continue moving upward. It is just a small point to look at.

The McClellan is signaling a movement to the downside as well.

I like to look at the long term view because it gives me a look at what could happen.

I am now going to take a look closer at the daily chart of the SPY.

The charts are not giving clear indication here.

What I think may or may not happen.

The evidence on the weekly charts shows that more downside movement could occur. However, the overbought oversold shows oversold, but not the kind oversold strength you could short (i mean as farther downside movement) or buy into.

From what I see on twitter, articles, etc the herd appears to have jumped back on the short side. I see quite a few people piling to the downside, and it may be time for another early push to the upside. There is no fundamental backing for this kind of move, but we will see when the market opens.

R

More intraday.

2009-05-16T13:52:00.001-07:00

Well, I learned my lesson Friday. I got in and out of the market unscathed. I traded against my usual system and nearly got burned. I have been testing out this new set of indicators, and I didn't wait on the real cross. I bought early on AMR at 5.07. I was extremely busy, and I wanted to get a position that I felt didn't pose a large amount of risk. I saw a fresh cross to the upside, but it quickly turned against me. It ran down to about 4.91 then quickly popped up to 5.15.

The final position: I bought 5.07 x 10,000 shares , and I sold at 5.14. I think I learned more about this trade than I have from any other probably in the past month. A friend of mine says the second mouse always gets the cheese. I pulled the trigger a little early here, and I had to sit for a bit until it came back up.

I got headfaked, and I had to stomach the minimal downside movement. I have gone over the trade on paper and in my head. I have learned a great deal.

I will be posting some charts of some possible market movements.

R

Little AMR chart.

2009-05-14T19:41:00.001-07:00

About this trade, I damn near bought the bottom. It wasn't terribly difficult seeing a bounce of S2 and a Qs rally / gap up early. I had a fresh cross on the CI indicator. Halfway through the move as VWAP was breached, I sold half the position to protect profits. I rode most of the second wave upwards. I don't have esignal at work so I am almost in the blind after 1045est as I leave for work. I use thinkorswim web platform to keep an eye on my trades at work, but I try to have most of the leg work done the night before or during amateur hour.

I am a fairly dull trader. I have a consistent strategy of buying and selling what I know. I really don't try to veer far outside my limited knowledge. I do this because I have paid small amounts (read hundreds) of tuition. The losses remind me that my knowledge makes me money regularly, but it is limited. I have a grasp on financials and transportation.

My father is a pilot for United Airlines, and I look to him to give me a feel of airline fundamentals. I have stopped trading UAUA for now because I don't want to make up to a merger. While that might shoot shares up, I don't want to be holding a company that is relatively weak. AMR is weak too, but I have a little more confidence in it as a major airline.

I profit off of small positions. I limit my risk, and I am in out usually in a couple hours. I rarely hold over night unless I am confident in my position. As the market gets a solid direction, I will open up my trades to higher shares, but I just don't trust the current market.

I am testing eSignal charting platform with Hamzei (hamzeianalytics.com) indicators. That is the chart you see above.

R

AMR.

2009-05-14T11:12:00.000-07:00

I bought 3,000 position in AMR @ 5.77 as I saw a fresh cross on a new indicator I've been testing out.

I sold half the position at 5.90 in case the market began to run against me ( I don't have my trade setup at work). I kept the remainder up until 5.13 when I sold the rest. I think the stock continued up until 5.30.

I had bought a very small AMR position (800) in my speculation account last night below 5 dollars. I sold that position at 5.25.

I will put some charts up later on the inital trade and the signals/indicator I saw.

R

QQQQ.

2009-05-13T20:44:00.000-07:00

Just taking a look at the Q's. I see a couple things going on here. S1 was breached very early on as the market moved quickly downward. VWAP appeared to be resistance throughout the day. VWAP also was a great bulltrap. It appeared to have caught quite a few people trying to push back to the upside. S2 was the primary level of support at around 33 dollars.

If S2 ($33.00) cannot hold tomrrow morning, I see 31.75 as probably the next test. If this downtrend is going to continue, I would like to see a violent greedy move to the upside (profit a little, set up some shorts) .

All in all, a fairly boring trading day.

We have seen a few days of serious downside movement. I am going to be extremely defensive with my trades.

R

More AMR crap.

2009-05-13T12:10:00.001-07:00

amr

Publish at Scribd or explore others: Arts & Architecture Research stock Market

This is a little look at a report on AMR. I will post a couple more on it.

Downside movement.

2009-05-13T10:04:00.000-07:00

The market continues to push downward. I bought a small (3000shares) AMR position @ 5.20, and I sold it back at 5.30. I like to buy and sell small bounces. I'm not looking for huge profits. I just want lunch money for the time being.

I have been sitting most of the past couple days on the sideline. The market is extremely volatile, and I am not looking to get caught long or short with my pants down.

I am still waiting for an entry back into oil. I haven't really been paying attention to commodities as of late, but I need to do my research.

If I trade to on the back end of the day, I will post that trade as well.

R

Wow.

2009-05-11T20:38:00.001-07:00

I know you can't read this in detail. And you shouldn't.

It really amazes me some of the trash I find floating around through blogs and twitter.

If anyone honestly thinks this a legit chart , I would love to hear about it.

I'm getting a headache just looking at this.

I trade with a few things: VWAP, s1 2, r 1 ,2 (soon to be hamzei analytics indicators tagged in as well), but I really believe in simplicity.

My screen does have 6 charts usually: Qs, USO, XLF, ES/NQ, equity im trying trade , sometimes tick, and maybe another equity in the same category (UAUA + DAL+ AMR)

I traded small position of AMR today. The chart above shows my entry and exit. I am playing extremely defensive as I am looking for solid overall market direction. I am not convinced the market is strongly in either direction. I read permabull and bear blogs to keep a healthy balance of fear and greed.

The Qs (premarket) appeared to be poised to the downside. However, it came out the leader in the market. The SPY spent the day on the downside as the sellers crushed it.

I see the 34.50 -34.75 as a key level of resistance for the Qs. It is the mark I am looking at. If I see volume and short squeeze, I might jump in on a Qs play (1,000) shares for a short term play. If not I see support coming at 33.80~

For support on the SPY, 90 dollar is going to be the first battleground if the downside movement continues. 88 dollars will be the true test if sellers can really take the upper hand. I think if SPY is going to continue movement to the upside it will have to test and pass through 91.50.

Tomrrow should be an interesting day.

R

Take a look.

2009-05-09T18:57:00.000-07:00

I follow Fari Hamzei on twitter and his blog.

He does webinars on the weekends.

I thoroughly enjoy it, and it is extremely informative.

http://webinars.hamzeianalytics.com/FH_050909.wmv

R

Back.

2009-05-09T18:28:00.001-07:00

Well,

I am back from my honeymoon. I really enjoyed San Juan.

I am ready for Monday and the markets. Any trades I did over last week were purely speculative (other than my sells from the holdover).

I literally had my iPhone in one hand with a real time stock ticker ap coming through on the phone. I would watch prices stream. Wait for a small bounce, buy, sell , and be done.

I was making the trades from Safari on my iPhone. Nothing large. I follow 3 stocks everyday/all day so I have a decent feel of pricing. I was not worried about the market completely caving against (although it could have :))

I will be back on the grind Monday morning.

I have quite a bit of "homework" to take care of in the mean time.

I might post a couple of charts, but I hate weekend speculation. The markets move regardless of a chart or an opinion. I've done better lately not forming opinions and just trading what the market gives.

I also twitter: twitter.com/rwbonner

R

Honeymooning

2009-05-07T12:29:00.000-07:00

Ah as I enjoyed the day touring old San Juan, I found my way to a very small trade. I have an alternative account that I use for risky/speculative trades.

AMR hit near a bottom ( I haven't looked at the true lows) at 5.53. I bought at 5.54 sold it at 5.65 as I was going into the Bacardi factory. I could have hung around for another 12-15 cents, but I really wasn't interested in staying. I just wanted my little profit and out.

I am happy I woke up in cash. I saw both my positions yesterday gapped to the upside very early on, but that momentum did not last. My positions would have lost ~50 cents give or take if I would have hung in there.

I am a little sour about my USO position. I could have made another 500 on it. I'll trade it another day.

R

Wedding and such

2009-05-06T13:26:00.000-07:00

The past 10 days I have been trying to get my wedding completely in order.

I have been trading but not the volume that I like. From the previous post, the market was at a critical point. It obviously went straight through all of those points listed, and it has continued to rally upwards.

I made 3 trades today ( it's raining on my honeymoon and my wife is napping ).

Bought 2000 RF @ 5.83 > sold 6.20

Bought 4000 AMR 5.93 Sold at 6.00

Sold USO (bought weeks ago) position @ 31.50

Sold my oil position 500 shares originally bought at 29.60 , gone at 31.50.
A side note about my oil position: I am really not sure why I sold that little position. It really didn't run much further, and it ended .07 lower than my selling point. That is the highest I have seen USO since I started trading it. I think it has definite potential to continue to climb, and it hedged my transportation fetish perfect. However, I had a need to be in all cash by the end of trading today just for my own piece of mind. It doesn't always make money being in cash, but I am guaranteed not to lose it :). Also, I am on my honeymoon, and I don't want to micromanage trades by the poolside. I'd rather just be a bystander unless I see something that I cannot pass up.

I didn't want to hold on to AMR overnight (similar reasons stated above). I don't want to wake up and be on the wrong side of the trend.

The market continues to climb, but I began to get a little sketched today. I would like to see a nice pullback, hell today could have very well been that day. The pattern of higher highs and higher lows has not been broke. We haven't seen anything that could allude to some serious downside movement, but I am playing extremely defensive. I am comfy with the gains of the past 6 weeks, and I won't let them go that easily.

Cheers,

R

UAUA scalp

2009-04-24T05:11:00.001-07:00

I won't post a chart because it's pointless on .08. I bougt 10,000 UAUA @ 6.23 sold 9 minutes later at 6.32. I have been extremely busy at work, and it has prevented me from trading more this week.

What I'm looking for in the coming day/week:

DIA: 81+

Q's 34+

SPY: 87+

If the market hits those points above, I think the rally has a chance to continue upward.

I feel if the market continues this consolidation / correction for much longer that we will continue to slide off the rally highs.

As of right now, I still own a small position in USO. Other than that, I am in cash looking to scalp.

R

AMR

2009-04-20T15:42:00.000-07:00

I usually try not to flow against the stream, but AMR sat around the same price all day. Most of the market was lead downwards due to BAC's earnings/forecast. Both AMR and UAUA dropped a decent amount early on in the session and then leveled. I was in cash until 1215 est due to work, and I could not step away ( I know I missed the large early morning downside movement $$$). I felt at some point if I bought in the market would move slightly up. Well it did. It moved 16 cents in my favor.

I bought 4000 at 5.69 (yes, i got the bad end of the market order). I sat on it until the ticker hit 5.86, and I was out of the market at 5.85. I am happy with this small intraday scalp.

R

Early Morning UAUA

2009-04-16T10:44:00.000-07:00

This morning UAUA gapped down quite a bit. I bought 4000 @ 6.14. I bought these on the lower channel break that was made. I wanted to pull the trigger on these all morning. I stayed in the trade as it did not appear to be going against me. I sold the 4,000 @ 6.56. Most of the time frames (1,5,10,30,) I was looking at showed upper channel breakouts. I usually will sell on that unless I see large volume pushing up strong.

Here is the chart:

I'll add anything else I pick up a later.

I'm on the sidelines for now.

R

No complaints

2009-04-15T17:43:00.000-07:00

Here are a few of my trades from the past two days.

Basically, the market dropped a good bit yesterday coming into today. I aggressively bought and sold UAUA @ 5,000 shares. Later in the day, I saw a buy back in at a lower price 6.35, took it and sold 2000 more at 6.55.

I bought and sold AMR @ 2000 shares. I have a couple charts to show my buy in's. Ill show a couple different looks of the same chart. I took a large risk buying into airline earnings, but it was a gamble that paid off very well. I honestly missed the bottom by about 20 cents (should have bought 2,000 more at $4.00 but thats another day), but the dollar increase eased my troubles

As for positions, I still own 1,000 XLF. I will be dumping that tomrrow if the conditions are right.

Also, at the bottom, will be a stock that I don't trade, but a friend texted me asking about early in the day.

Here is the UAUA with my buy ins:

Here is the AMR chart:

The buy in was bad. I should have waited until the blip in the channel to the downside.

Here is the HIG. The main reason I am posting this is because I want my friend to see what I saw on the charts. Bars were outside the channel. More than likely going to see a trend reversal (not always).

Good luck

R

2009-04-13T11:04:00.000-07:00

I have been playing with this real time options express practice account.

I bought 1,000 at 29.21 using two of the indicators I trade with regularly.

I sold 1,000 @ 30.20.

I don't have the Schwab software setup on my workstation (cough work) so I can't trade that account during the day.

I will be getting the software very soon.

My real position of UAUA @ ~6.50s is now sold.

500 started @ 5.60 sold 6.49.

I have 1500 that will continue to sit until I feel a push down in the market. More than likely I will run stops at 6.30 for the 1500. I haven't figured where I will exit.

Looking for another entry.

Template

2009-04-10T11:07:00.001-07:00

I am searching for a new template that won't chop my high res pictures to death. It looks terrible.

Rob

April 10

2009-04-10T10:08:00.000-07:00

As you can see, I missed the lower buy in at about 5.30. I waited for a little more volume to push up prices. I bought 2000 shares around the 5.60 mark. I shorted 250 shares at the 5.86 then buying back at the 5.50 mark. I am holding my 5.60 position, and I will probably put up aggressive stops Monday morning near 6.30 if it doesn't gap down to that or lower. I will probably end up selling my position if the market doesn't continue to climb higher. If it continues higher,I will put tight stops on my position and follow up.

As for the longer term, the market is going to have to pull back. Hopefully, I can offload current positions and get ready for that pullback. I use telecharts for my longer term goals, and I marked two areas that are interest for me.

I use a custom cci indicator and MACD. I don't have the volume weighted MACD that I use as well on the chart I'm posting.

On this chart, the +100 CCI is broke, and the 10DMA is nearly crossing the 30EMA. It gives me confidence that the market won't completely run against me in the short (hope).

I am beginning to look for an entry into USO as a long term play, and it will provide a nice hedge vs. the transportation stocks I like to trade.

Rob